Bigger choke artist: Buckner or Cruz?

28 Oct

All respect to the Cardinals and instant lifelong WS hero David Freese, but none of that comeback would have been possible if not for the alligator-armed effort in right field from one Nelson Cruz on the sorta-deep flyball that would have won the Rangers the Series if caught.

For reasons that are 10% valid and 90% unfair, Bill Buckner continues to hold the torch as the biggest choker in Series history, but it seems to me that Cruz’s was the more egregious collapse. Three reasons:

EFFECT ON THE OUTCOME

It’s not easy to argue that Nelson’s blunder had a larger effect on the game’s outcome, mostly because Buckner’s error directly resulted in the end of the game, whereas after Cruz’s miscue, the Rangers still had a shot (a few of them actually) to win.

But consider the math. With Freese at the plate, history (via Fangraphs) tells us that the Cards had an 8% chance of winning the game. After Cruz’s misplay? The odds had swung in favor of the Cards to 62%.

On to Buckner. I don’t have the exact details, but it seems that, as noted above, with the score tied and the home team having a runner in scoring position with two outs, that team has a ~60% chance of winning. Buckner’s error caused a 40% swing, but Cruz’s was 54%. Sorry, Buckner as Choke Artist King arguers, you’ve been mathed.

DIFFICULTY

Again, at first blush it seems Buckner is the winner. I don’t think so. I’ve come about as close to being launched in space as I have the major leagues, but I played enough post-high school ball in both RF and 1B to have had to make plays on the exact same hits that Buckner and Cruz flubbed. In my opinion, there’s no obvious choice on the easier play. Cruz had to move back on the ball, but he had plenty of space and, for god’s sake it was a flyball.

Buckner’s was an in-between hop that required lots of lateral movement that couldn’t have been easy considering he had the knees of a 94-year-old at the time. Plus, as has been noted in documentaries and proven by replays, Buckner was using an extremely loose and floppy mitt (so loose in fact he reportedly nicknamed it “Whoopi”)(not true) that folded up on him, which, yes, it was Buckner’s choice to use that leather and ultimately his fault, but still.

In my not-quite-expert opinion, I’m considering Cruz’s just *slightly* more difficult than Buckner’s. However, the overall Choke Artist Champ pendulum swings heavily and eternally in Cruz’s direction when considering…

EFFORT

This one is a no-brainer and is the reason Cruz is by far the bigger choker. Buckner’s error was tragic in its timing and inexcusable in terms of the supposed ease of the play, but Cruz’s was a sin of the effort variety. Much, much less forgivable.

Cruz didn’t miss the ball because it was too difficult a play. He missed it because he didn’t try hard enough.

If he’d gone after the ball as hard as he could – as hard as the moment deserved – with the necessary mindset that he couldn’t give a damn if he hit the wall afterward, he could’ve had the ball in his back pocket. Instead, he pulled up out of either fear of injury or not paying enough attention to his surroundings, and all of a sudden, instead of making a medium-difficult catch that wouldn’t have made the highlight reel in any game beyond high school, the odds swung heavily in the Cardinals’ favor and made a hero out of Freese. Unreal.

Look, I couldn’t care less whether Cruz choked or not, and I hope the media/fan hatred that was heaped on Buckner never happens to anyone again. I hope Cruz isn’t branded as something less of a man the rest of his life just because of one dumb play. My point is just that I’ve watched something like a million baseball games in my life and that was maybe the biggest choke job I’ve ever seen, and we should at least acknowledge that he played a huge part in the outcome of the game (and possibly Series). The end.

Advertisements

5 Responses to “Bigger choke artist: Buckner or Cruz?”

  1. Ray Mitchell October 28, 2011 at 10:35 am #

    I agree Cruz totally blew the game and choked the World Series for Texas. He was scared to hit the wall which is why he stopped and jumped up to catch it instead of continuing to run back to the wall. He would have easily caught it if he did not jump up because the ball landed at the very bottom of the wall just a few inches from the ground. That means if he would have kept running to the wall he would have had an easy catch. Yes he may have hit the wall a little bit and perhaps have been hurt a little bit but catch this and you win a World Series!!! Come on Cruz!!! Other players hit the wall super hard in regular season games to catch a ball even when they have no chance of making the playoffs. Cruz was not willing to take a little hit to win a World Series championship. Scardey Cat Chicken!

  2. Lee October 28, 2011 at 12:50 pm #

    Couldn’t agree more about Cruz’s pitiful effort. Clearly he did not understand the magnitude of the moment, because real winners would never let that ball drop… If he catches that ball, they win the world series! How can he simply flail at it with soo much at stake? Craziness. It will be interesting to see if the baseball gods punish Cruzy and the Rangers for throwing their chance at winning on a lazy flyball.

  3. Am I Taking Crazy Pills!?!? October 31, 2011 at 1:22 am #

    Are you really comparing it to as big of a choke as Buckner? The difficulty of the two plays isn’t even close! Deep fly ball off the wall or a 90 hopper to first? Look at the distance that had to be covered before attempting to field the ball in both plays. Much larger in Cruz’s case. Buckner was able to set up in a field position. Meanwhile Cruz would have been required to make a catch at full speed (with a bad groin) while running into a wall in order to come down with the final out.

    The only point you have is that he didn’t run full speed at it. I’m not blaming this on lack of effort, I’m blaming it on him not being a good outfielder. He has a cannon, yes. But I don’t think he’s ever been praised for his superior range as a right outfielder.

  4. Blake Lucas October 31, 2011 at 8:39 am #

    Appearance wise, Cruz’s play was more difficult, but as anyone who has played sports knows, sometimes the slower hit ball, the wide open catch, or the weak slapshot, will handcuff athletes causing them to blow the play. It is called an “error of anticipation”, where you actually have more time than required to make the correct play, which sometimes causes the player to anticipate the actions too quickly. Cruz’s play was more of a “reaction”, where reflexes and natural athletic instinct take over. Sometimes it’s better to not have too much time to make an important play,catch or save.

  5. Coach Guz November 3, 2011 at 6:57 pm #

    Guys you haven’t mentioned thats Cruz was playing DOUBLES prevent and it was a shorter route to the ball……..his footwork or drop back step was horrible. Once he knew he had no chance he should have broken down in front of the wall to take the nice bounce off the wall and make sure berkman does not score from first that why he was back agaisnt the wall.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: